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Q4 2018 Manhattan and Brooklyn Sales Market Report
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Manhattan Trends:
- Market-wide, sales fell by 7% annually to 2,797 closings, the most moderate year-over-year decline of 2018.
- This was the lowest fourth quarter closings total since 2011, and the first time since then that fourth quarter closings failed to reach 3,000 transactions. This is also the first time since 2009 that closings have fallen year-over-year for four consecutive quarters.
- Sales volume dipped 5% year-over-year to $5.63 billion. This drop was less pronounced than the one for number of closings because of an increase in sales over $5M.
- Contracts signed fell 12% annually as some buyers continued to hesitate. Only 2,309 contracts were signed this fall, the slowest fourth quarter since 2011.
- Several factors delayed buyers’ decision making, including the midterm elections and concerns over growing financial market risk.
- Marketing times lengthened when compared to last year. Apartments that closed in Fourth Quarter 2018 spent an average of 108 days on the market, the highest end-of-year reading since 2012.
- Brooklyn ended 2018 with sales slowing slightly overall – but also shifting to lower-cost areas. Overall sales dipped 6% year-over-year and all product types saw fewer transactions.
- With the high prices in neighborhoods close to Manhattan – compounded by tax reform and rising mortgage rates – buyers continued to seek value in areas with more affordable price points. These parts of Brooklyn had robust sales activity and further price appreciation.
- However, the pace at which value-seeking buyers transacted was not fast enough to prop up sales compared to Fourth Quarter 2017, which was the strongest fourth quarter in the last ten years.
- While contract activity fell 2% below last year’s number, this modest decline is a demonstration of resiliency compared to Manhattan, where contracts declined 12% this quarter.
- Borough-wide price statistics decreased during Q4. Median price was down 3%, and average price was 2% lower – both year-over-year.
- These price declines were mainly driven by large geographic shifts in the new development market – as resale condo prices actually grew and resale co-op prices dipped only slightly.
Third Quarter 2018 Manhattan and Brooklyn Sales Market Report
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Manhattan Trends:
- Closed sales fell by 10% annually. Resale coop sales, down 8%, and a 37% drop in new development sales drove sales lower. In contrast, resale condo sales actually rose, up 2% annually.
- Contracts signed fell 12% annually. Hesitancy about high prices, Midterms, and press coverage of the slowing market muted confidence and lowered contract activity versus last year.
- Days on market increased by 9% annually to 97 days. A crowded marketplace with many sellers trying to cash out has continued to extend time on market.
- Inventory increased a considerable 23% annually to nearly 7,300 listings, which meant that buyers had more than 1,000 additional apartments to choose from versus this time last year.
- Median price increased a minimal 2% year-over-year – due namely to shifts in the composition of sales in favor of larger residences enabled by improved seller negotiability and prevalent discounting.
- Average price per square foot fell for the third quarter in a row to $1,687 per square foot. This figure, down 3% year-over-year, is now 12% lower than its First Quarter 2017 peak.
- The West Side posted the greatest average price increase of any submarket, rising 10% annually as the share of transactions along 57th Street and Central Park South doubled.
- Following one of the most active quarters in recent years, Q3 sales activity in Brooklyn varied widely across neighborhoods and product types.
- Robust activity continued as value-seeking buyers pushed further afield in the borough, yet signs of buyer hesitancy emerged in other areas.
- Market activity was muted in northern and western parts of Brooklyn – where prices remain high.
- Buyers were particularly resistant to purchasing in Williamsburg as the L-train suspension date draws nearer.
- On the other hand, neighborhoods on the southern and eastern edges of Prospect Park, which offer value relative to the borough-wide price figures, saw a surge in sales at such a rate that inventory could not keep pace.
- Inventory continues to be constrained market wide; dipping 2%year-over-year and declining annually for six of the past seven quarters.
- Half the neighborhoods in Brooklyn had an increased number of listings compared to last year, but the gains were offset by the sharp decline in inventory in southern parts of the borough.
Second Quarter 2018 Manhattan and Brooklyn Sales Market Report
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Manhattan Trends:
- Closed sales declined 14% annually versus Second Quarter 2017. All product types experienced annual decreases in closed sales.
- Contracts signed declined 9% annually. High levels of supply, hesitancy about future prices and tax consequences continue to affect buyer urgency.
- Days on market increased 13% annually. Higher inventory levels have given buyers more options, and have extended marketing times.
- Median price decreased 3% annually due to an increase in market share of sales at the mid-to-lower end of the market (under $3 million).
- Average price per square foot was essentially level with last year, as price growth at the lower end of the market balanced fewer luxury new development sales.
- Downtown had the greatest market share of any sub-market, claiming 30% of all closed sales. It was the neighborhood which also claimed the greatest number of closings over $5 million.
- Brooklyn exhibited varied market signals this quarter – as buyers continued to endure supply constraints at lower price points and sellers experienced tempered demand at the high-end.
- Closed sales reached its second highest figure in a decade, though only half the borough – the less expensive half – experienced increased sales.
- Contract activity fell 7% annually, hindered by persistently low inventory levels.
- Closed sales rose 5% versus a strong Second Quarter 2017 to 1,620 closings.
- The overall gain in sales was driven by resale co-ops, with a 13% uptick, and new development closings, which rose 12%.
- Both these markets currently offer value; co-op median price displayed only modest gains and new development price statistics declined annually for the fourth consecutive quarter.
- Price statistics were dictated by high-end buyer hesitancy as well as ongoing geographic shifts in favor of neighborhoods offering value in a price-sensitive climate.
- Resale condo sales plunged 11% as not enough buyers were incentivized from a price perspective compared to new product.
What to Know Before You List: A Seller’s Checklist
Selling a home in New York City can be a daunting task, so it’s important to be prepared before listing a home. In order to help you in your sales journey, we’ve put together a Seller’s Checklist meant to help manage your expectations and make your home selling experience as seamless as possible.
☑ Select An Experienced Real Estate Professional
Selecting an experienced real estate professional is the most important item on our sellers checklist. The value that seasoned agents provide includes:
- Understanding your home’s value and educating you on the market: market conditions change frequently and a well-experienced agent can guide you on what to expect considering current conditions.
- Pricing your home appropriately based on the condition, location, comparables, and recent market trends: a well-priced home will sell quickly and may attract multiple offers.
- Creating an effective and wide-reaching marketing strategy that will garner the attention of potential buyers worldwide: the audience you reach is expanded exponentially when working with a real estate agency.
- Developing elegant and high-quality marketing materials including photography, brochures, mailers, digital ads, print ads, videos, social media exposure, and websites when appropriate: marketing matters and should be done right the first time.
- Pitching public relations when appropriate: for press-worthy properties, agents can secure PR that will amplify your home’s exposure.
- Coordinating all open houses: agent-run weekend and weekday open houses take the headache (and emotion) out of showing your home for sale.
- Fielding all inquiries and reviewing potential buyers’ qualifications: most New York City homes get a lot of inquiries before the right buyers walk through the door.
- Negotiating on your behalf: expert negotiation skills make all the financial difference.
Since you’ll likely be spending a lot of time with your agent, select someone with whom you get along well and whose communication style matches yours.
☑ Research the Market
The market fluctuates frequently in New York City, and the potential asking price for a home can vary on a floor-to-floor, line-to-line, and block-to-block basis. Keep up with market trends by reviewing quarterly market reports for insight into where your asking price point should be. Your agent will advise you on price, but reviewing the market will help you understand what neighborhoods and home sizes are in highest demand, as well as how long you can expect your home to be on the market before selling.
☑ Know your Home
Getting a home inspection will allow you to mitigate issues hurting your home’s value. Anything from a leaky faucet to faulty wiring to damaged blinds will lower the actual and perceived value of your home. Repairs should either be handled before showing, or items in need of repair should be disclosed in the property description. Similarly, find out everything there is to know about your building’s financials, any upcoming construction, needed repairs, land leases, bed bug incidents, and board requirements. Your level of transparency and disclosure could make or break a deal.
☑ Budget for Closing Costs
There are a number of closing costs to be aware of before embarking on the sales process. Here are some of the costs you should budget for:
Fee | Approximate Cost | Condos/ Townhouses | Co-ops |
Agent Commission | 6% of sales price | x | x |
Seller’s Attorney | $1500 – $2500 | x | x |
Managing Agent / Co-op Attorney Processing Fee | $650 | x | x |
New York City Transfer Tax | 1% of price for purchase of $500,000 or less; 1.425% of price for purchase over $500,000 (Paid by Seller, except sale by Sponsor) | x | x |
New York State Transfer Tax | 0.4% of price (Paid by Seller, except sale by Sponsor) | x | x |
Reserve Fund Contribution (if applicable) | Determined by condo board, payable by buyer unless otherwise stated | x | |
Move-out Deposit | $500- $1000 (usually refundable if no damage) | x | x |
Payoff Bank Fees (if applicable) | $250+ | ||
E Tax Filing (ACRIS) | $100 | x | x |
Property Condition Disclosure Statement | $500 | x | |
NYS Capital Gains Tax Withholding** | 8.82% of taxable gain on sale (only applicable to non-US residents) | x | x |
(FIRPTA) Only applicable to non-US residents | Buyer to withhold 10% of purchase price | x | x |
Stock Transfer Tax | $0.05 per share | x | |
Flip Tax (if applicable) | Determined by co-op building (unless otherwise stated or negotiated) | ||
Lost stock and lease fees | $250+ | x | |
Estate fees | TBD: Co-op may impose additional fees for estate sales | x | |
UCC-3 Filing Fee | $75+ | x |
☑ Prepare your Home for Showings
If your budget permits, professionally stage your home or focus on the main rooms in your home. However, whether or not you stage your home, simple adjustments will make a big difference in the eye of the beholder. Your home should look clean and welcoming, so that potential buyers can easily visualize themselves in your space. To achieve this look, be sure to:
- Give the home a fresh coat of paint: neutral colors work best to create a neutral space
- Shine the floors: a good coat of wax is a must for sprucing up your home.
- Declutter your home and depersonalize the space: Excessive furniture, clothing in closets, family portraits, books, shampoos, razors, and other personal items take away from the ‘blank canvas’ you’re aiming to create; a good rule of thumb is to remove 50% of your belongings before showing the home.
- Freshen up the bathroom: Reglazing your tub and shower walls is a great way to freshen up the bathroom on a small budget, be sure any broken tiles or areas needing recaulking are taken care of, and buy new bathroom accessories and fixtures for an updated feeling.
- Spruce up the details: take care of seemingly small problems such as scuff marks on baseboards, scratches in wood floors, stains on carpets, leaky faucets, and squeaky cabinet doors
- Clean like you’ve never cleaned before: Every nook and cranny of every room, closet, and cabinet should be deep-cleaned like never before; the home should also smell fresh when visitors arrive.
- Lighten up each room: the neutral paint colors will help, as will table and floor lamps with warm light bulbs to create a soothing atmosphere.
Listing your home for sale doesn’t have to be a mysterious process. With the right agent, the right marketing plan, and the right presentation, your New York City home will attract qualified buyers and you’ll be glad you invested in the market when you did. It’s a great time to sell in New York City, and it’s a great time to buy as well.
Contact me to start your search for your next home today!
First Quarter 2018 Manhattan and Brooklyn Sales Market Report
Contact me here for assistance with buying or selling a home in Manhattan.
Manhattan Trends:
- It was a mixed quarter for the Manhattan market with fewer sales, inventory on the rise and price statistics settling down.
- Many potential buyers took a pause as a variety of factors—concerns over tax reform, luxury market over-supply, stock market fluctuations, even March’s nor’easters—reduced the sense of urgency in the marketplace.
- However, First Quarter 2018 included bright spots as well: average days-on-market dropped slightly, indicating that appropriately priced properties are finding buyers quickly, while mispriced properties linger.
- With uncertainty pervading the market in First Quarter 2018, sales dropped. Year-over-year, closed sales fell 11% and signed contracts declined 10%.
- Sales varied by product type and price range, however. Resale co-ops, which benefit from lower prices, saw sales increase 2% annually. Resale condo sales, on the other hand, declined 12% as prices remained near their record-high level.
- In the new development arena, fewer buildings commenced move-ins, causing a 44% drop in new development transactions.
Brooklyn Trends:
- Sales activity in Brooklyn remained solid, registering above the five-year average – while available inventory continued to plummet.
- The ongoing lack of inventory means many buyers are struggling to find apartments that meet both their price and location criteria, so some took a pause in the First Quarter in hopes of new listings coming on the market in spring.
- On the other hand, the more opportunistic pursued more accessibly-priced homes further south in the borough, which helped to drive contract activity upward.
- Others chose to postpone buying due to continued uncertainty surrounding the effects of tax reform – which contributed to a slight decline in overall sales this quarter.
- The overall number of closed sales was 3% lower year-over-year. The decline in sales reverberated throughout most of the northern and western neighborhoods of Brooklyn.
- However, eastern and southern parts of Brooklyn actually had double-digit increases in sales this quarter.
- Another cause of the overall decline was fewer new development closings compared to First Quarter 2017, when several large-scale buildings were completed.
Fourth Quarter 2017 Manhattan & Brooklyn Sales Market Report
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Manhattan Trends:
- The year ended in a more stable condition than 2016, as three of the past four quarters registered level or annual increases in closed sales activity.
- Fourth Quarter 2017 closed sales were essentially unchanged from last year, and at 3,140 closings, carried the 2017 year-end total to 13,400 closed transactions.
- Signed contracts fell 14% year-over-year, largely in response to non-market factors like tax reform that are adding complexity to buyer decision making.
- Nevertheless, as closing figures suggest, the chasm between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations on pricing, value, and velocity that affected sales in 2016 has narrowed over the last twelve months.
- Still, market activity varied significantly by product type.
- In Fourth Quarter 2017, resale co-op sales rose 4% annually, for the third consecutive quarter, as purchasers sought value.
- Resale condos, which have been limited by lingering high prices, experienced a 3% decrease in closed sales year-over-year.
- The real estate market in Brooklyn closed out 2017 on a high note, as the market continued to expand.
- However, the year-over-year gains in the number of closed sales were less robust in Fourth Quarter 2017 relative to the first three quarters of the year.
- At 1,318 apartment closings, the total number of closed sales in Fourth Quarter 2017 still rose 7% year-over-year.
- For buyers, limited inventory at all price points was a key factor for lower growth levels this quarter – as sellers were unable to keep pace with the strong demand for housing.
- New development product played a crucial role in spanning the shortfall of resale supply and the market responded favorably with swift sales of new product.
- This was the strongest fourth quarter for Brooklyn new development sales in seven years.
- Market wide median price was $725,000, up 4% year-over-year, and a slight improvement from Third Quarter 2017. Average price adjusted downward 4% as there were fewer sales over $2,000,000.
Third Quarter 2017 Manhattan Sales Market Report
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Manhattan Trends :
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- The Manhattan market has now experienced two consecutive quarters of annual growth in closed sales as a result of improved contract activity during first six months of 2017 versus 2016.
- In Third Quarter 2017, the Manhattan market saw closings rise by 3% year-over-year to 3,703 sales, primarily due to strong performances in the new development and resale co-op markets.
- Listed inventory has stabilized this year. At 5,930 active listings, the number of available ‘for-sale’ properties was nearly level with last year, rising by just 1% annually.
- Pricing trends were mixed during the quarter. Marketwide median price and price-per-square-foot both experienced annual gains, with the median price rising by 10% and median price per square rising 2%.
- However, the effects of rising inventory, widespread price decreases, and marketwide negotiability at the higher end of the market impacted average price and average price-per-square-foot figures, which fell for the first time since Fourth Quarter 2013, by 3% and 5%, respectively.
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